Tuesday, October 12, 2010

Paula Becomes a Hurricane

    As of 8am EDT Tuesday Hurricane Paula was located 190 miles to the south-southeast of Cozumel, Mexico with top winds of 75 mph and was moving toward the northwest at 10 mph.
The National Emergency Management Organization of Belize still has a Tropical Storm Warnings for the northern districts of Belize, including Ambergris Caye, this morning as it closely monitors the development of Hurricane Paula. Although Paula is not forecasted to make landfall in Belize, storm conditions are possible due to the hurricane’s proximity to land. Classes from most schools on the island have been cancelled; please check with your children’s schools.

Kevin Roth, Lead Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
Oct. 12, 2010 8:05 am ET
    Hurricane warnings are in effect for the eastern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Punta Gruesa to Cabo Catoche, including Cancun and Cozumel.
    Tropical storm warnings have been discontinued for coastal Honduras from Limon eastward to the Nicaragua border, including the Bay Islands.
    Tropical storm warnings continue along coastal Mexico from Chetumel northward to just south of Punta Gruesa and from Cabo Catoche west to San Felipe.
Atmospheric conditions are favorable for Paula to strengthen today and Wednesday. Paula could be a category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale as it approaches the Yucatan Peninsula Wednesday.
    Paula is forecast to continue to move northwestward toward the Yucatan Peninsula through early Wednesday. During the day Wednesday Paula should gradually turn to the north and northeast in response to a storm system moving through the eastern United States.
    There are two scenarios developing for the future path of Paula beyond Wednesday. If the storm system in the eastern United States is strong enough it could pull Paula northeastward across Cuba and near southern Florida Wednesday night through Thursday. If the storm is not strong enough to capture Paula and pull it northeastward it would meander around the northwest Caribbean into the weekend.
    Heavy rain from Paula will douse northern Belize, the Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba. Rainfall of 3 to 6 inches is possible through Wednesday. A few localized areas of 10 inches are possible near mountainous areas. The heavy rain could lead to flash flooding and mud slides.

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