The Hurricane Hunters are in Tropical Depression Nineteen, and have found winds of 40 mph that support upgrading the depression to Tropical Storm Richard. The storm is expected to remain nearly stationary through Friday, then move westwards and intensify to a hurricane before making landfall on Sunday in Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. It is uncertain at this point whether the storm might dissipate after hitting the Yucatan, of swing northwards and hit the west coast of Florida.
Steering currents are weak in the Western Caribbean, and will remain weak through Friday morning, resulting in a slow, erratic movement for TS Richard. A slow drift to the south is the most popular track expected by the major models. Thus, Jamaica can expect rains to increase and become torrential at times until Saturday, when the storm will finally move off. The Cayman Islands and possibly the north coast of Honduras can also expect very heavy rains of 3 - 6 inches Friday through Saturday. By Friday afternoon, a ridge of high pressure is expected to build in, forcing TS Richard to the west or west-northwest, bringing the storm to a landfall in Belize or Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula Sunday night. (forecast from Weather Underground)
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