Keep Watch on Tropical Storm Richard!

    The Hurricane Hunters are in Tropical Depression Nineteen, and have found winds of 40 mph that support upgrading the depression to Tropical Storm Richard. The storm is expected to remain nearly stationary through Friday, then move westwards and intensify to a hurricane before making landfall on Sunday in Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. It is uncertain at this point whether the storm might dissipate after hitting the Yucatan, of swing northwards and hit the west coast of Florida.

    Steering currents are weak in the Western Caribbean, and will remain weak through Friday morning, resulting in a slow, erratic movement for TS Richard. A slow drift to the south is the most popular track expected by the major models. Thus, Jamaica can expect rains to increase and become torrential at times until Saturday, when the storm will finally move off. The Cayman Islands and possibly the north coast of Honduras can also expect very heavy rains of 3 - 6 inches Friday through Saturday. By Friday afternoon, a ridge of high pressure is expected to build in, forcing TS Richard to the west or west-northwest, bringing the storm to a landfall in Belize or Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula Sunday night. (forecast from Weather Underground)

All Eyes Fixed on Another Weather Disturbance

    Heavy thunderstorm activity has increased and grown more organized over the past day over the southwestern Caribbean between Honduras and the Cayman Islands in association with a tropical disturbance. A surface circulation may be beginning to form, and the Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate the area this afternoon to see if a tropical depression is forming. The storm is currently moving north-northwest at 5 - 10 mph, but is expected to move west or southwest beginning on Wednesday, making the storm primarily a threat to Honduras, Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, and Belize late this week.

    Recent satellite imagery shows that 99L has some rotation, and the winds on the northeast coast of Honduras at Puerto Lempira have shifted to the west-northwest, implying that 99L may be developing a surface circulation.

    Water vapor satellite loops reveal that the atmosphere in the Western Caribbean is moist enough to support development, and the waters beneath are plenty warm, at 29°C. The current north-northwest motion of 99L should continue until Wednesday, when a strong ridge of high pressure is forecast to build in, forcing 99L to the south or west. However, steering currents will be weak Wednesday through Friday, making it difficult to predict where 99L may wander to.

    The only models that develop 99L are the GFDL and HWRF. The GFDL model predicts that 99L will spend enough time over water to develop into a hurricane, and brings the storm to the coast of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Sunday morning. The HWRF model has 99L making landfall over Honduras late this week, before the storm has a chance to develop into a hurricane. NHC is giving 99L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday. I believe the odds are higher, near 60%. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate 99L this afternoon. (from Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog: Weather Underground)

High Winds of Tropical Storm Alex

All is Quiet...For Now, as TS Alex Approaches

Looking at the satellite image, it looks as if Belize is getting pounded with heavy rain and Alex's fury is already upon us. Surprisingly all seems quiet in San Pedro, Ambergris Caye. It is not raining at the moment and we have only been getting sporadic short showers since last night. The wind picked up a bit around noon, but all is calm at the moment. Maybe the calm before the storm. Took a ride around town just after lunch and all seems calm. People are shopping for their groceries, stocking up on provisions and safety equipment and only a few homes and businesses have boarded up with hurricane shutters. Most places are closed and much of the activities scheduled for the weekend have been canceled as everybody buckles down for the worsening of weather conditions.

Tropical wave rains lash Caribbean islands

At least four Caribbean islands were yesterday lashed by heavy rains from a tropical wave located east of the Windward Islands. The heavy rains, accompanied by lightning and thunder, affected the islands of St Lucia, Dominica, Grenada, St Vincent and the Grenadines as well as Barbados.
The Miami-based National Hurricane Centre (NHC) said that "cloudiness and showers would continue in association with the tropical wave". It said that upper level winds were expected to remain unfavorable for the development of the system for the next couple of days, but that "regardless of development locally, heavy rainfall and gusty winds will affect the Windward Islands during the next day or so as the wave moves westward at 15 to 20 miles per hour".

"There is a low chance, less than 30 per cent, of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours," the NHC said. However, if the system develops into a tropical storm with winds of 29 to 73 miles per hour, it would be called Ana - the first named storm of this year's hurricane season that ends on November 30.